The Atlanta Braves host the Boston Red Sox tonight in the final game of this home and home set, and Atlanta has taken two of the first three. The Red Sox are once again a favorite, and I'll take the Braves as a home dog.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Shelby Miller will be on the mound for the Braves, and he's having a stellar season. Miller (5-2, 2.02 ERA) allowed three runs on eight his over 6.1 frames in a win over the Mets in New York in his last start. He's 2-1 with a 1.59 ERA in five starts in Atlanta this season. The Red Sox counter with Clay Buchholz, who has given up eight runs on 18 hits in his last two starts.

2. Home Cookin' - The Red Sox are just 12-21 on the road this season, while Atlanta is 16-14 at home.

3. X-Factor - The Red Sox are just 4-12 in Buchholz's last 16 starts.

Selection: This is a play on the Atlanta Braves +1.5 (8*)