The Miami Marlins are coming off four consecutive losses and I think they're coming into this series opener against the Cincinnati Reds as unmotivated big favorites. The Reds had their series finale at Washington last night postponed, but they had won the first two against the Nats and I like them to keep that momentum going.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Fish will hand the ball to Jose Fernandez (1-0, 4.50 ERA) who'll make just his second start of the season. He conceded three runs on seven hits in six innings against the Giants a week ago and is 0-1 with a 5.73 ERA in two career starts against Cincinnati who will counter with Michael Lorenzen (3-3, 3.58 ERA). The 23 year old rookie is win-less over his last two starts but tossed 5/3 innings of one-run ball at Citi Field his last road-start and he's 2-1 with a 2.89 ERA over six road-outings in his career.

2. Road Warriors - The Reds are 24-17 against the run-line away from home for the season and they've won seven of the last eight meetings at Miami straight up.

3. X-Factor - Joey Votto is 1-for-4 with two walks against Fernandez lifetime but is coming in hot going 5-for-10 over two games against the Nats.

Selection: This is a play on the Cincinnati Reds +1.5 (8*)