The set-up: No need to overthink this one in my opinion. I think the massive talent discrepancy on the mound tonight makes the visitors well worth the price of admission. The Friars hand the ball to Chris Paddack, while the home side counters with Tyler Beede.

The pitchers: Paddack (4-4, 2.97 ERA) beat San Francisco 3-1 in his major league debut. Note that the Padres have gone 5-2 so far in this season series.

Beede (0-2, 8.15) faced San Diego in his second major league start last year and he was shelled for five runs off six hits over three innings in a 10-1 loss.

The pick: Note that San Diego is 14-7 (+7.8 units) this year after scoring two runs or less, while San Francisco is just 2-6 this season as a home dog of +125 or higher. I like Paddack to settle down here and I expect him to easily out duel his volatile counterpart.

San Diego Padres (vs. San Francisco Giants)

8* play