Chelsea and Luton Town have both been playing high event soccer as of late. Chelsea has given up the first goal in their last 6 EPL matches. But they do have 3.54 Xgoals so far and Jackson alone has 1.14. Big signing Caicedo will get his first start alongside the other big signing Mac Allister (his former teammate) and both will benefit from playing with Sterling who has been a real bright spot for Chelsea. They lead the league in big chances missed so the tide will have to turn here.

Brighton surrendered 4 goals in their first game and also had their woodwork hit 3 times, so they give up chances galore. They play a very direct game and should also get success against a very fragile backline that will be missing star James for this one.

Chelsea’s Xgoals/90 is 1.96 while Luton’s is 1.46 which gives a total over 3. Most predictions have Chelsea scoring 3 so Luton only needs to find the net once to get a high total in this one. Go for the over and enjoy all the high event soccer.