At 12 ET, my Early Riser is on Air Force. One look at the records tells you that Army has been much better than Air Force this season. That's reflected in this rather large point spread. The talent gap isn't as big as the spread suggests. At the beginning of the season, a popular publication ranked Air Force #81 and Army #109. That clearly wasn't very accurate but it does provide a little context. Think about the fact that Air Force was favored by -18 points when these teams played just last season. (Army scored 13 points off turnovers and pulled off the upset.) None of the past 10 meetings had spreads this big and none of those 10 games were decided by more than 21 points. We saw last year that you can throw the records out the window to some extent when these teams meet. A 2-6 Army team won outright on the road against a top 20 Air Force team with an 8-0 record. At the time Army linebacker Leo Lowin said this: “We kind of were overlooked for sure. We haven’t had a great season. We saw this as a huge opportunity to turn that around, turn that in our favor." The roles are reversed and an overlooked Air Force team sees this as an opportunity to get some payback from last season. This will be a close game. Grab the points.