PREMIUM
Stephen Nover's NBA Wednesday Spread Crusher
(NBA) Milwaukee vs. Boston,
04/12/2017 4:00 PM, Score: 94 - 112
Point Spread: 14.00 | -105.00 Milwaukee (Away)
Result: Loss
Point Spread: 14.00 | -105.00 Milwaukee (Away)
Result: Loss
The Celtics need to win this game to clinch home-court advantage for the Eastern Conference playoffs. The Bucks are going to make it easy for them by resting Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, Matthew Dellavedova and Tony Snell. The Bucks are doing this because they are locked into the No. 6 seed and will meet Toronto in the first round of the playoffs.
The pointspread has been adjusted to reflect this situation. It's my view the spread is too out of whack in favor of Boston.
It's one thing for Boston to win. It's another for the Celtics to cover an overinflated spread, something they've had problems doing. Only once in their last 13 games have the Celtics won by more than 10 points.
The Nets hung in against Boston two nights ago on the road losing by nine points. The combination of the Bucks' remaining players being as good as Brooklyn's and the Celtics not playing that well make me believe Milwaukee will cover this number. The Celtics can't help but be overconfident in this spot knowing who the Bucks are sitting out.
If you discount holding the disjointed Knicks to 94 points, the Celtics are giving up an average of 112.8 points in their last eight games. This is Boston's fifth game in eight days. So the backdoor will be fully open if the Celtics should open a big lead. The Celtics have covered only two of their last nine games, too.
The Bucks haven't allowed more than 82 points during their last two games. They've split two games with Boston this season with the outcomes being decided by one point in overtime and by three points. So that has been a very tight series.
The obvious question is how wounded will the Bucks be minus Antetokounmpo and Middleton, their two best players?
The Bucks will be impacted eough where they have no shot of winning the game straight-up. However, star rookie point guard Malcolm Brogdon has returned from a back injury. He's Milwaukee's third-best player. The Bucks also have their fourth-best player in reserve Greg Monroe. Mirza Teletovic and Michael Beasley, who has had a surprisingly decent season, will play. So the Bucks aren't desolute.
The pointspread has been adjusted to reflect this situation. It's my view the spread is too out of whack in favor of Boston.
It's one thing for Boston to win. It's another for the Celtics to cover an overinflated spread, something they've had problems doing. Only once in their last 13 games have the Celtics won by more than 10 points.
The Nets hung in against Boston two nights ago on the road losing by nine points. The combination of the Bucks' remaining players being as good as Brooklyn's and the Celtics not playing that well make me believe Milwaukee will cover this number. The Celtics can't help but be overconfident in this spot knowing who the Bucks are sitting out.
If you discount holding the disjointed Knicks to 94 points, the Celtics are giving up an average of 112.8 points in their last eight games. This is Boston's fifth game in eight days. So the backdoor will be fully open if the Celtics should open a big lead. The Celtics have covered only two of their last nine games, too.
The Bucks haven't allowed more than 82 points during their last two games. They've split two games with Boston this season with the outcomes being decided by one point in overtime and by three points. So that has been a very tight series.
The obvious question is how wounded will the Bucks be minus Antetokounmpo and Middleton, their two best players?
The Bucks will be impacted eough where they have no shot of winning the game straight-up. However, star rookie point guard Malcolm Brogdon has returned from a back injury. He's Milwaukee's third-best player. The Bucks also have their fourth-best player in reserve Greg Monroe. Mirza Teletovic and Michael Beasley, who has had a surprisingly decent season, will play. So the Bucks aren't desolute.
