PREMIUM
Stephen Nover's NBA Thursday Discounted Totals Casher
(NBA) Philadelphia vs. Miami,
04/19/2018 3:00 PM, Score: 128 - 108
Total: 217.00 | -110.00 Over
Result: Loss
Total: 217.00 | -110.00 Over
Result: Loss
It's easy to think offense when discussing the 76ers and all their young talent headed by Ben Simmons, Joel Embiid and Dario Saric. But Philadelphia actually is very strong defensively. The 76ers ranked second this season in defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense.
The Heat, of course, have forged their blue-collar repuation by playing tough defense. Only three teams gave up fewer points per game than Miami this season.
Yet Under bettors were torched when the 76ers won, 130-103, in Game 1 and some Under bettors lost in Game 2 depending on the number they took.
So what gives and why is Under the best way to look in this Game 3?
Based on the quality of these two defenses, with both placing among the top-seven in points per possession, the total is jacked up too high. Some of this has to do with 233 points being produced in the series opener. That game, though, was an outlier. The Heat and 76ers combined to make 30 of 54 shots from 3-point range. That's 55.5 percent. The 76ers shot 36.9 percent from beyond the arc entering the series, while the Heat were below average from 3-point range during the regular season hitting 36 percent.
The Heat bounced back to win 113-103, in Game 2. That's a combined 216 points with the total being in the 215-217 range depending on the sports book and when the wager was made. The score was 109-100 with 10 seconds left. This isn't college basketball. That's what the final score should have been for 209 combined points. Instead a lot of B.S. and unnecessary end-game stuff happened. Seven points were scored during these meaningless last 10 seconds, including Goran Dragic putting in a layup with one second remaining.
The dynamics could be altered for this Game 3 if Embiid returns to the lineup. He's missed the last 10 games with an orbital fracture. Embiid is a plus both offensively and defensively with his rebounding and shot-blocking skills, where he ranked sixth in blocks per game. The Heat have an elite rim-protector, too, in Hassan Whiteside. Whiteside was limited to only 15:10 of playing time in Game 2 because of foul trouble. He should log more minutes in this game, which would be a plus for the Under.
If Embiid plays - and Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said he has prepared his team for this to happen - I would regard it as more of a plus than a minus for the Under. Embiid will be tough inside defensively, but his shot figures to be rusty since he's been idle since March 28.
The Heat, of course, have forged their blue-collar repuation by playing tough defense. Only three teams gave up fewer points per game than Miami this season.
Yet Under bettors were torched when the 76ers won, 130-103, in Game 1 and some Under bettors lost in Game 2 depending on the number they took.
So what gives and why is Under the best way to look in this Game 3?
Based on the quality of these two defenses, with both placing among the top-seven in points per possession, the total is jacked up too high. Some of this has to do with 233 points being produced in the series opener. That game, though, was an outlier. The Heat and 76ers combined to make 30 of 54 shots from 3-point range. That's 55.5 percent. The 76ers shot 36.9 percent from beyond the arc entering the series, while the Heat were below average from 3-point range during the regular season hitting 36 percent.
The Heat bounced back to win 113-103, in Game 2. That's a combined 216 points with the total being in the 215-217 range depending on the sports book and when the wager was made. The score was 109-100 with 10 seconds left. This isn't college basketball. That's what the final score should have been for 209 combined points. Instead a lot of B.S. and unnecessary end-game stuff happened. Seven points were scored during these meaningless last 10 seconds, including Goran Dragic putting in a layup with one second remaining.
The dynamics could be altered for this Game 3 if Embiid returns to the lineup. He's missed the last 10 games with an orbital fracture. Embiid is a plus both offensively and defensively with his rebounding and shot-blocking skills, where he ranked sixth in blocks per game. The Heat have an elite rim-protector, too, in Hassan Whiteside. Whiteside was limited to only 15:10 of playing time in Game 2 because of foul trouble. He should log more minutes in this game, which would be a plus for the Under.
If Embiid plays - and Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said he has prepared his team for this to happen - I would regard it as more of a plus than a minus for the Under. Embiid will be tough inside defensively, but his shot figures to be rusty since he's been idle since March 28.
