The set-up: The LA Angels and Cincinnati Reds open a three-game IL series Monday night in Anaheim. The teams are hardly familiar, as their head-to-head encounters total just nine all-time meetings. What they do have is common is their records, with the Reds checking in at 55-74 and the Angels at 56-74, with both teams residing in last-place in their respective divisions (Cincy is 27 games out in the NL Central and LA is 20 1/2 games out in the AL West).

The pitching matchup: Dan Straily (10-6, 3.57 ERA) will go to the mound for the Reds and Matt Shoemaker (8-13, 3.98 ERA) for the Angels. Straily last lost back on July 8, 3-1 at Miami to the nearly unbeatable Jose Fernandez (that is, in Marlins Park, at least). Straily's record stood at 4-6 after that game but since the Reds returned from the All Star break, Straily is unbeaten in eight starts, earning wins in six of them, with Cincinnati going a perfect 8-0. Straily's hot streak makes him 16-8 in team starts in 2016 and he owns MLB's second-best moneyline mark among starters at plus-$1345. In stark comparison, Shoemaker is 9-16 in team starts, minus-$709 vs. the moneyline.

The pick: With two bad teams, it seems like backing the red-hot Straily would be the way to go. However, while the Reds limp in having lost five of seven, the Angels have won four of their past five games, beating playoff contenders Toronto and Detroit during that stretch. What's more, Shoemaker has pitched much better than his record shows. He has given up two ERs or less in more than half of his starts (13 of 25) but has been able to come away with a win in just six of those 13. A lack of run support has been the problem, as the Angels have scored as many as four runs in only 11 of Shoemaker's 25 starts. Shoemaker hasn't need much run support in winning his last two starts (1.38 ERA) but he should get that support here, as Straily owns a 6.69 ERA against the Angels in seven career starts (when pitching for Oakland & Houston). Angels are an 8* play.