In professional sports, our research has proven that regression to the mean falls into many angles with great statistical significance. This makes sense because players and coaches do not get to this level without being able to make adjustments. Combine with the fact the public prefers to bet hot and superior teams, the sharp angle is so often to bet the inferior and colder team against the hot and superior. This regression to the mean angle is 169-108 for 61 percent and a more nuanced one is 73-49 for 65 percent.

This is a also sharp versus square, which is when our Vegas, offshore, and outlaw contacts tell us the majority of sharp money is betting one team, the square money the other. We go with the smart money as contrarian betting is used by many professional gamblers.

We have reduced the number of such picks after refining the metrics to raise the winning percentage. In short we have more sources that must validate it is widely authenticated.

Of course as explained, it is no surprise the contrarian bet is also on the inferior team.