Big letdown situation that is 409-319. Bad teams off a loss that was not a blowout is 263-176. It is corroborating data here as admittedly not so great since 2016. Regression to the mean angle that crosses all sports, so we rate it even higher than the pure numbers would dictate because it is a proven theory in other sports. This one is based on turnovers and is 513-390. Another nice letdown situation is 69.8 percent.