Home underdogs of seven more in Week 1 are 8-3 against the spread. This spread ignores the fact of how successful rookie QBs have been in recent years. EJ Manuel is the leading candidate this season.

Last year's top wide receivers, Wes Welker and Brandon Lloyd, exited Foxborough after falling just short of 200 combined catches last season, while versatile Danny Woodhead is gone as well. We know about tight end Aaron Hernandez being gone and Rob Gronkowski is questionable. With C.J. Spiller and Vincent Jackson, Buffalo has the balance to keep the Pats off balance. This is not as good of a supporting cast as Tom Brady had had in previous seasons.