We have exposed the old go with the big underdog in rivalry games as a complete myth. However there are many other factors in play here. For Kentucky, despite a brutal SEC schedule ahead, this is a huge statement game in the rivalry. Louisville is much more about the bigger picture, being a fly in the ointment BCS Title contender.

With an off week next week, Kentucky has the luxury of it being more important to them to stay competitive than it is for Louisville to blow them out. The Cards do fit into our Golden Rule of it being easier to be the hunter than the hunted.

While the Wildcats are not exactly world beaters, this is the Cardinals first respectable opponent and first road game. Remember, the Cards benefitted from a ton of good fortune last year winning several games they should have lost. That keeps them overvalued until they are handed a straight up loss. It may happen here.

Our true line (previously known as outlaw line) is Louisville (-7.5). The true line is what the line would be without public perception or bad line moves. Since 2005, the average margin of victory is 6.2 in the series.

Kentucky has the perfect two-headed QB monster with one pretty traditional pocket passer and the other an athlete, making preparation tougher for the big chalk. Maxwell Smith and Jalen Whitlow are being rotated to change the tempo.

Teddy Bridgewater, Louisvilles Heisman candidate has put up some great numbers in two home games to overmatched foes. He pulls out a late straight up victory here, but falls well short of the cover.