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BUTLER +8 Creighton

Precise records vary on the parameters (obviously), but teams with very high winning percentages off a straight up loss are great go-against plays. Creighton's loss is no aberration. Their stunning rout of Villanova has been surrounded by four spread losses of 7.5 or more with the only other cover in that span by just a point.

In addition, Butler will have to avoid looking ahead to a Villanova team that will be out for blood. So we like the nice letdown and look ahead combo for the big road favorite.

Yes, this is an off year for Butler, struggling in the post Brad Stevens era, but they did take Villanova to OT in their other home game to a nationally ranked team and we cannot ignore they are 173-31 straight up at home this century.

It has not been a great year for Butler, but so often teams rally around a big game at home as Butler did against Villanova. Creighton is in a tough spot and this game goes down to the wire.