There are several angles, but all are consistent with our general finding on all sports. That is the counterintuitive system that says go with slumping double-digit underdogs against a hot favorite.

Of the 18 players to appear in a game for Penn this year, 13 have made a start. This certainly hurt their chemistry, but it also means they have an upside and teams like that rally in big games. We have told you how in football blindly going with big rivalry big underdogs is a myth, but has a lot more legitimacy. That is the case here as underdogs of eight or more are 6-2 in the series.