This is a Performance Gap Analysis pick.

Based on years of experience, and significant trial and error, we have developed a performance gap analysis. It is based on the statistical hypothesis testing and concludes that yards per rush, yards per pass, and yards per play on offense and defense are most indicative of talent and less variable. They are lead indicators.

Yards per point and turnovers are more affected by random chance or luck and/or more correctable, hence more variable and tougher to maintain. They are lag indicators. The former is more a precursor to future results than the latter and a dichotomy between the two subsets measures upside/downside.

This is one that you and I keep making a fortune with. A team with a bad turnover ratio and inefficient defense based on yards per point is now 1173-978-45 for +4.17.

Carolina defense opponents averaged 129.8 yards rushing over the last four games, which still is way too much to consistently win. The Panthers secondary gave up eight touchdown passes over the last four games and allowed short plays to turn into big ones. That is not a good sign against a Saints offense that is clicking.