PREMIUM
Wise Guy
(NFL) Jacksonville vs. Cincinnati,
Point Spread: 11.00 | -110.00 Jacksonville (Away)
Result: Win
Point Spread: 11.00 | -110.00 Jacksonville (Away)
Result: Win
This is a Performance Gap Analysis pick.
Based on years of experience, and significant trial and error, we have developed a performance gap analysis. It is based on the statistical hypothesis testing and concludes that yards per rush, yards per pass, and yards per play on offense and defense are most indicative of talent and less variable. They are lead indicators.
Yards per point and turnovers are more affected by random chance or luck and/or more correctable, hence more variable and tougher to maintain. They are lag indicators. The former is more a precursor to future results than the latter and a dichotomy between the two subsets measures upside/downside.
This is one that you and I keep making a fortune with. A team with a bad turnover ratio and inefficient defense based on yards per point is now 1173-978-45 for +4.17.
The Bengals are having a good year and they are off a very big win to Baltimore. Now they host one of the worst teams in the NFL. It should be a rout, correct? Is Marvin Lewis still their coach? Is Andy Dalton still their QB? Check and check. Oh we have seen this movie before. Staring at a short week against the suddenly a contender Browns, this has letdown written all over it.
A.J. Green says he expects to play against the Jaguars, but in this sandwich situation, look for him to be used only when needed.
The Jaguars defensive line, notably tackles SenDerrick Marks and Roy Miller, has played well all season, but especially in the red zone. Teams are averaging just 2.08 yards per rush against the Jaguars in the red zone. In addition, the Jaguars have allowed teams to convert just 27.3 percent of third-down plays in the red zone, which is fifth in the league.
Against a QB who seems to play his worst against the worst, the underrated Jags defense will keep it close.
Based on years of experience, and significant trial and error, we have developed a performance gap analysis. It is based on the statistical hypothesis testing and concludes that yards per rush, yards per pass, and yards per play on offense and defense are most indicative of talent and less variable. They are lead indicators.
Yards per point and turnovers are more affected by random chance or luck and/or more correctable, hence more variable and tougher to maintain. They are lag indicators. The former is more a precursor to future results than the latter and a dichotomy between the two subsets measures upside/downside.
This is one that you and I keep making a fortune with. A team with a bad turnover ratio and inefficient defense based on yards per point is now 1173-978-45 for +4.17.
The Bengals are having a good year and they are off a very big win to Baltimore. Now they host one of the worst teams in the NFL. It should be a rout, correct? Is Marvin Lewis still their coach? Is Andy Dalton still their QB? Check and check. Oh we have seen this movie before. Staring at a short week against the suddenly a contender Browns, this has letdown written all over it.
A.J. Green says he expects to play against the Jaguars, but in this sandwich situation, look for him to be used only when needed.
The Jaguars defensive line, notably tackles SenDerrick Marks and Roy Miller, has played well all season, but especially in the red zone. Teams are averaging just 2.08 yards per rush against the Jaguars in the red zone. In addition, the Jaguars have allowed teams to convert just 27.3 percent of third-down plays in the red zone, which is fifth in the league.
Against a QB who seems to play his worst against the worst, the underrated Jags defense will keep it close.
