Wise Guy
(NFL) Washington vs. Minnesota,
Point Spread: 1.00 | -102.00 Washington (Away)
Result: Loss
This is a Performance Gap Analysis pick.

Based on years of experience, and significant trial and error, we have developed a performance gap analysis. It is based on the statistical hypothesis testing and concludes that yards per rush, yards per pass, and yards per play on offense and defense are most indicative of talent and less variable. They are lead indicators.

Yards per point and turnovers are more affected by random chance or luck and/or more correctable, hence more variable and tougher to maintain. They are lag indicators. The former is more a precursor to future results than the latter and a dichotomy between the two subsets measures upside/downside.

This is one that you and I keep making a fortune with. A team with a bad turnover ratio and inefficient defense based on yards per point is now 1173-978-45 for +4.17.

Robert Griffin III starting is good news especially in that the Skins have options and can go with the hot-for-now hand of Colt McCoy if Griffin sputters.

Through his first four starts as an NFL quarterback, Teddy Bridgewater has been blitzed on 29.9 percent of his dropbacks, which actually is a relatively small percentage when compared to the experiences of other recent rookie quarterbacks.

But now he finally faces a team that loves to blitz. the Redskins have rushed five or more 42.4 percent of the time this season, second most in the league.