We do have that sweet angle that says under specific circumstances when a team has been predominately an over team to bet them under. One of the main reasons this makes perfect sense and dollars is that the public prefers to bet games over. Of course the love it even more with a perceived over team. Hence the angle simply exploits market overreaction. It has gone under 396-513-14 with a 3.85 z-score.

Quarterback Alex Smith injured right shoulder probable but replaced last week over abundance of caution. Smith became the first NFL quarterback in two seasons to win a game while throwing only one pass more than 10 yards down the field. We look for a lot more of the same.

Jets hold teams to .4 yards per rushing attempt below normal average, so KC will not have a ton of success passing or throwing. Pass protection has been a problem for the Chiefs, who allow more sacks per pass play than all but four other teams. The Jets do play some strong defense, but their offense is horrible. This is very low score.