NOTE: Line has moved since completing our write-up on this one so we are now going money line here with this play after Arkansas previously was a +1 in this one: #761 ASA PLAY ON Arkansas +1 over Auburn, Thursday at 7 PM ET - The Razors are undervalued entering this tourney having lost 5 of their last 7 games. Those results have made them an underdog in a game we feel they should be favored. Arky finished the SEC regular season with an 8-10 record yet KenPom has them rated as the 3rd best team in the league (19th in the country) behind only Alabama & Tennessee. Our power ratings are in line with that as well. This is one of the more talented teams in the SEC (3 potential NBA draft picks) and now they have new life as we start a new season and they make their run to try and solidify their spot Big Dance (currently projected as 9 or 10 seed). Their star freshman Nick Smith (#1 recruit in the country) missed 13 games from late December to early February and he is now back and healthy. He’s scored 24 points or more in 3 of his last 4 games. While we think Arkansas is undervalued, we have Auburn as an overvalued team right now. The Tigers are off a huge home win over Tennessee to close out the season, however the Vols were playing their first game without their starting PG who is now out for the year. Prior to that win, Auburn was 1-6 SU vs the 5 highest rated teams in the SEC per Ken Pom. That lone win was vs this Arkansas team way back in January when the Razorbacks were without Nick Smith. Arky dominated the boards in that game (+13) but shot poorly hitting only 12% of their 3’s in the loss. These 2 have played almost identical strength of schedules on the season and despite having a worse record, Arkansas is the much better shooting team (93rd nationally eFG% / Auburn is 235th) and while Auburn is very good defensively, the Razors have better efficiency numbers on that end of the court as well (16th nationally). Wrong team getting points here in our opinion and we’ll take the value with Arkansas.