This should be an interesting matchup, but it's a shame we'll get the exact same matchup for the MWC title game which cheapen the experience for today's contest. Fresno State will want to keep a few tricks up their sleeves given they know Boise State is the better overall squad and as a result we like the Broncos to go on to win and cover the spread. Fresno has already said they will keep it basic and not show anything today.

If Fresno HC Jeff Tedford has trick plays up his sleeve you won't see them here. Boise has been a machine down the stretch going 6-1 ATS with the ATS loss a 10 point win against Wyoming w/ QB Allen healthy laying 14 while Fresno is 1-2-1 ATS their last 4 with the ATS win hosting an Allen-less Wyoming and winning by 6. In both teams last 4 games Fresno is +31 YOG against UNLV, BYU, Hawaii & Wyoming while Boise is +159 YPG against Utah St, Nevada, Colorado St and Air Force. Broncos have covered all 5 road games this season and are 9-1 ATS as a MountainWest favorite of 3 or more.
I like BOISE St here.