The Under 138.5 in the Long Beach State vs. Pepperdine matchup appears to be a strong play, backed by key defensive metrics and recent trends. Long Beach State has shown defensive improvement, allowing just 69.8 points per game over their last five contests, well below their season average. Similarly, Pepperdine ranks in the top 100 nationally in opponent field goal percentage, limiting teams to a respectable 41.7% shooting. This defensive focus from both sides could significantly impact the total.

Offensive efficiency also raises concerns for a high-scoring game. Long Beach State ranks 220th in offensive efficiency, while Pepperdine sits at 201st. Neither team excels from beyond the arc, with Long Beach shooting 29.8% and Pepperdine managing 31.4%, both below average nationally. With offenses that struggle to produce consistently, it’s unlikely the game becomes a shootout.

The pace of play further supports the Under. While both teams have leaned toward faster tempos at times, recent games have shown a more controlled style, emphasizing half-court sets and defensive adjustments. Pepperdine, in particular, has slowed the game against defensively focused opponents, limiting possessions and keeping scores down.

Historical and betting trends also point to a lower-scoring affair. In their last two meetings, the total scores were 135 and 132, both under the current total of 138.5. Additionally, the Under has hit in 5 of Long Beach State’s last 7 road games and 6 of Pepperdine’s last 8 home games. The betting market has also shown support for the Under, with the total dropping slightly since opening.

Given the combination of defensive strengths, offensive inefficiencies, slower tempos, and recent low-scoring trends, the Under 138.5 is a solid bet for this matchup.