The Under 52.5 looks like a strong play for the SMU vs. Penn State matchup, given the defensive strengths and potential offensive challenges both teams face. Penn State boasts one of the top defenses in the nation, ranking 3rd nationally in scoring defense and allowing just 12.3 points per game, while SMU is equally impressive, ranking 6th and conceding only 14.7 points per contest. This sets up a defensive showdown where points could come at a premium. Both teams also play methodical, controlled styles, with Penn State relying on its ground game and short passing attack to manage the clock, and SMU often struggling to break through against elite defenses. Against a strong Tulane defense earlier this season, SMU managed just 14 points, which could be indicative of their performance against Penn State’s dominant unit.

Red-zone efficiency also tilts in favor of the defenses, as both teams excel in limiting scoring opportunities once opponents cross midfield, ranking in the top 10 nationally in red-zone defense. This trend suggests drives may stall out and result in field goals rather than touchdowns. Additionally, historical and betting trends reinforce the case for a low-scoring affair, as the Under has hit in 6 of SMU’s last 8 games and 5 of Penn State’s last 7 bowl appearances. With both teams’ defensive strengths, potential offensive struggles, and the possibility of conservative play-calling in a high-stakes bowl setting, the Under 52.5 appears to be a promising bet for this matchup.