Arizona has something to play for on Thursday, while Milwaukee clinched its postseason spot on Wednesday. While I hardly expect the Brewers to blow off today's game, Bradon Pfaadt is due for a rebound performance after a disastrous start against Milwaukee last time out. The right-hander (3.74 xFIP, 17.3% K-BB% and a 10.04 K/9 over his last 40.1 IP) has a low strand rate (66.5%) with strong Stuff+ and Pitching+ ratings. Milwaukee ranks 14th in wRC+ and 14th against right-handed pitching in the second half of the season.

Tobias Myers has a 41 percent hard-hit rate since August 1 and will face an intimidating Diamondbacks lineup ranking eighth in hard-hit rate with a wRC+ of 134, and MLB-leading wRC+ of 136 against right-handed pitchers, since the All-Star break. He didn't dominate Arizona in the first matchup, either (four runs on nine hits with a homer).

I see value in a wager on the Arizona ML at -114 odds!