SF SP Mason Black sports a .268 expected batting average and .443 expected slugging percentage. He has struggled to limit power and will be in for a challenge against a motivated D-Backs team that boasts the 3rd-highest slugging percentage (.437) and fourth-highest home run-fly ball ratio (13.3%) against right-handers.

AZ SP Zac Gallen has responded nicely to subpar showings in July and August with a 3.00 ERA, .219 xBA and 31.4% strikeout percentage this month. One of those starts was a six-inning start against the Giants in which he allowed no hits and no runs with eight strikeouts.

I am confident San Francisco will play below its recent averages, giving Arizona the breathing room necessary to cover the 1.5-run line.