Betting Trends: The over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings between these teams. The over is 40-29 in the Phillies' last 69 road games (+10.00 Units / 13% ROI) and 27-14 in the Mets' last 41 home games (+11.75 Units / 26% ROI).

I favor a wager on the total to go over seven runs in Tuesday's Phillies-Mets game, especially with the extra value on the over available for plus odds at 7.5 total runs.

The Phillies have been successful against Sean Manaea, slashing .309/.346/.680/1.027 with ten HRs in 97 combined career ABs. They have hit four homers against him in three matchups this season, scoring ten runs on 11 hits in his 16.2 combined innings. Philly has crushed left-handers this year (.270/.342/.441/.783) too, ranking third in wOBA (.340) and third in wRC+ (118).

The Mets have also had success against Aaron Nola, slashing .272/.332/.444/.777 in 243 combined career ABs. Pete Alonso has taken him deep five times, hitting .320/.370/.680/1.050 in 50 ABs against the Phillies' starter. Nola has been solid but not elite this season, as he has regressed in the second half (3.84 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and a .292 opponent BA). He allowed 30 homers this year, third-most in MLB, as well.

On top of that, these bullpens are average. They ranked 14th (PHI) and 17th (NYM) in ERA in the regular season, including 13th (PHI) and 20th (NYM) in ERA over the last month of the season. The Phillies' pen has a 39.8% hard-hit percentage (23rd) since Sept. 1st.