I bet the over on Tuesday, and while we cashed, I like the over EVEN MORE today!

Phillies SP Ranger Suarez hasn't looked the same since returning from the IL, posting a 5.74 ERA with a 4.73 FIP with 14 walks and five HRs allowed over his final seven starts. He hasn't pitched since Sept. 27 (six runs on seven hits in 2.0 IP vs. Washington) too, which doesn't work in his favor against a red-hot Mets lineup chomping at the bit to put away their rivals.

I believe the Phillies should also have enough success against Jose Quintana to contribute to the total, as well. The Mets' starter had a 3.75 ERA this season, but the advanced stats indicate he was due for negative regression (4.49 xERA and 4.56 FIP). The Phillies ranked 2nd in MLB in wRC+ and wOBA in the second half of the season against lefties, and while they didn't score much against Sean Manaea yesterday, they had a lot of loud outs (nine hard-hit balls and two Barrels).

Both of these bullpens are average, at best. Neither looked good yesterday, either. With some wind potentially helping blow balls out of right field, the over looks very attractive at 7.5 at almost even odds.