Northwestern stinks, plain and simple. The Wildcats' offense is downright offensive, as they average 5.4 yards per pass attempt (132nd in the nation) and rank 124th in rushing success rate. They convert just 18.6 percent of their third downs (119th) and rank in the bottom 10 in finishing quality drives and the bottom 20 in expected points added (EPA) per rush. They're also 108th in explosiveness and 99th in Havoc allowed. The switch from Mike Wright to Jack Lausch at QB hasn't worked... Maryland's defense is 29th in finishing drives, 25th in pass rush grade and 36th in rushing explosiveness allowed this year.

The Northwestern defense is stout against the run, but opposing teams know this, as well as how poor the Wildcats are at defending the pass, so their opponents steer clear of the run (36%), the second-lowest run rate in the country. Northwestern's pass defense is 97th in passing success rate allowed and 97th in PFF coverage grade. Maryland is a pass-heavy team as it is, ranking 27th in PPA and 55th in success rate. The Terps produce quality drives on 46.9 percent of their possessions and convert on most of their drives (3.96 points per quality drive), coming away with points on 100 percent of their red zone trips.

The spread has grown, but I believe Maryland can cover as high as 12.5/13.