I feel confident that the oddsmakers got this one wrong, as I believe New Mexico should be larger spread favorites on Saturday versus Air Force.

The Falcons, 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS, have one win this season: 21-6 over FCS Merrimack as 30-point favorites. All four of their losses were by double digits, as well. Air Force averages just 11.4 points and 249 total yards per game, as it has struggled to run the football (3.4 YPC). New Mexico is coming off a bye week, so it should be fully prepared for the Falcons' unique triple-option after preparing and resting for two weeks.

The Lobos held their own against Arizona, Auburn and Fresno State earlier this season, and have been tough to defend. NM averages 32.0 points and 6.4 yards per play, plus it ranks 8th in the nation in Havoc Allowed, while Air Force ranks 123rd in Defensive Havoc Rating. QB Devon Dampier (1,641 total yards and 12 total TDs) and the Lobos will attack the Falcons on the ground and through the air, winning and easily covering the 6.5-point spread at home.