PREMIUM
PSU-USC UNDER 51
(NCAAF) Nittany Lions (PSU) vs. Trojans (USC),
Total: 51.00 | -108.00 Under
Result: Loss
Total: 51.00 | -108.00 Under
Result: Loss
I believe this total is too high for this matchup.
The Nittany Lions lack playmakers outside of the run game and their top tailback, Nick Singleton (53 carries for 408 yards), is questionable after missing the last game. With or without him, PSU will likely lean on the ground game, as junior Kaytron Allen (74 carries for 367 yards) is another solid back. Penn State plays very slow (105th in tempo) and fails to generate big plays (101st in explosiveness) on offense. The Trojans' defense is stout, as they lead the Big Ten in third down conversion rate and lead the nation in EPA per play and success rate on passing downs. They also limit big plays (19th in explosiveness allowed).
USC has its own troubles on offense, too. While the Trojans consistently move the football, they lack explosiveness (125th). Going up against an elite Penn State front will create challenges, as the Lions rank 2nd in line yards, 1st in stuff rate and 10th in front-seven Havoc (4th in overall Defensive Havoc). They are allowing just 11.4 PPG, 4.0 yards per play and 233.2 total yards per game.
The Nittany Lions are playing an early game out West after barely traveling in the first six weeks, as they traveled to nearby West Virginia in week one and have been home ever since. The Trojans have been all over the map, going from Las Vegas to SoCal to Michigan in the first three weeks, and then back home and out to Minnesota the past two weeks. In short, this should result in a lower-scoring, slower-paced game than the 51-point total suggests.
The Nittany Lions lack playmakers outside of the run game and their top tailback, Nick Singleton (53 carries for 408 yards), is questionable after missing the last game. With or without him, PSU will likely lean on the ground game, as junior Kaytron Allen (74 carries for 367 yards) is another solid back. Penn State plays very slow (105th in tempo) and fails to generate big plays (101st in explosiveness) on offense. The Trojans' defense is stout, as they lead the Big Ten in third down conversion rate and lead the nation in EPA per play and success rate on passing downs. They also limit big plays (19th in explosiveness allowed).
USC has its own troubles on offense, too. While the Trojans consistently move the football, they lack explosiveness (125th). Going up against an elite Penn State front will create challenges, as the Lions rank 2nd in line yards, 1st in stuff rate and 10th in front-seven Havoc (4th in overall Defensive Havoc). They are allowing just 11.4 PPG, 4.0 yards per play and 233.2 total yards per game.
The Nittany Lions are playing an early game out West after barely traveling in the first six weeks, as they traveled to nearby West Virginia in week one and have been home ever since. The Trojans have been all over the map, going from Las Vegas to SoCal to Michigan in the first three weeks, and then back home and out to Minnesota the past two weeks. In short, this should result in a lower-scoring, slower-paced game than the 51-point total suggests.
