This matchup pits the top two rushing offenses in the NFL. I expect this to be a fun, back-and-forth battle for a while, with Baltimore pulling away in the second half to win and cover the spread. With both teams likely to lean on their ground games, the game clock will run continuously and the drives will be long, resulting in fewer total possessions. On top of that, the Commanders have not faced stiff defensive competition recently and will struggle to get in gear against the Ravens' stout run defense. Baltimore ranks third in rush play rate when playing with a lead of 3+ points, which I expect to be the case in the second half.

While the over is a combined 8-2 in these teams' games this season, the high total reflects that. Asking for 53 points from two run-oriented squads is too much — all it will take is a turnover and a few penalties to stall a couple of drives, preventing bettors from even sniffing a win on the over. 72 percent of the bets are on the over, but we won't be on that side. Besides, over the last two seasons, games with totals of 50+ points have gone 16-5 to the under (76%)!

You can read my full game preview, too: https://winnersandwhiners.com/games/nfl/10-13-2024/washington-commanders-vs-baltimore-ravens-prediction-1029/