I see a lot of action on the Jets, and while I see the logic behind that pick, I don't believe New York will be as competitive as some think. Sure, the head coaching and coordinator changes could energize the Jets, but the eye test and advanced metrics don't line up.

NY has a good defense and has held up well against the pass, but it's also coming off a game in London and is facing one of the best passing games in the NFL. Josh Allen leads an aerial attack that ranks second in Dropback EPA per play (0.258) and fourth in EPA per play (0.130). Allen is also a threat to run the ball and is a tough guy to bring down in the open field. The Jets have not generated enough of a pass rush and haven't been great against the run either. The Bills' ground game is in good hands with the scrambling Allen and James Cook (70 carries for 309 yards and four TDs), who is questionable (toe) but practiced Saturday and is expected to play.

New York hasn't looked too good on offense, anyway. It moved the ball in stretches vs. Minnesota in London, but it didn't finish drives, as Aaron Rodgers tossed three picks. NY's new offensive coordinator, Todd Downing, doesn't have a great track record, either. His 2022 Titans team ranked 26th in EPA per play (-0.066) and 25th in yards per play (5.1). The Bills are also stout defensively, ranking in the top ten in EPA per play allowed (-0.071).

There are too many distractions on New York's sideline, especially with the spread at only 2.5 points. With Cook potentially limited for Buffalo, I'll pass on the spread and pay for extra cushioning by betting the Buffalo moneyline at -130.