I like the Dolphins this week off a bye against a Colts defense that looks vulnerable.

Miami is expected to have RB De'Von Achane back to pair with Raheem Mostert and Jaylen Wright, who could have a field day against this Indianapolis run defense (30th in adjusted line yards). I anticipate the Fins using the same strategy Green Bay used in week two when the Packers gashed the Colts for 261 rushing yards. With another week in the system under his belt, QB Tyler Huntley should be much more prepared. Let's not forget, the Colts' defense made the lowly Jaguars look efficient a couple of weeks ago.

With RB Jonathan Taylor unlikely to play due to a high ankle sprain, Indianapolis will be far less likely to take advantage of Miami's poor run defense. His status is worth monitoring, but I'm not worrying about him. Besides, the switch from Joe Flacco (4th in QBR) to Anthony Richardson could blow back in Indy's face, as the young QB leads the NFL in turnover-worthy play rate.

I don't believe the market is correctly adjusting for these variables, so I am pouncing on the 3.5-point spread!