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For me, this game comes down to the coaches and the quarterbacks.

I respect what HC Mike Elko has accomplished in his first season and his track record suggests future success in Aggieland, but Brian Kelly has a proven track record in these games. Bettors have cashed in nicely when backing Kelly-coached teams as road underdogs, as he has compiled a 23-11 (68%) ATS record in that spot.

I also trust Garrett Nussmeier much more than Conner Weigman, who didn't look up to par in his last start (15-for-25 passing with two INTs) against a Mississippi State defense ranked 126th nationally in EPA/Pass Allowed. He didn't come through (12-for-30 passing for 100 yards and two INTs) in A&M's important clash versus Notre Dame, either. Nussmeier has been excellent this season, coming up big against Ole Miss and leading a Tigers passing attack ranked fifth in the nation in Passing Success Rate.

The Aggies' run defense is stout, but they have been vulnerable against the pass. With the spread down from 3.5 to 2.5, I see more value in betting on the Tigers to win straight-up against the Aggies.