Betting Trend: The under is 53-30 (63.8%) in Dallas' last 83 games (+20.00 units/22% ROI).

Houston ranks tenth in defensive rating this season. The Rockets can keep this close in a low-scoring game, as they rank 27th in pace (97.8 possessions per 48 minutes). The Mavs rank 15th in pace, but I expect them to play even slower tomorrow. The Mavericks' tired legs will fail them on Thursday, underperforming their league-best +5.4 offensive rating (per DunksandThrees.com). Houston ranks sixth in opponent eFG% and seventh in opponent true shooting percentage.

Bet on the visitors to at least cover the spread in a lower-scoring game between these Texas foes.

*This is an excerpt from my free game preview on winnersandwhiners.com