PREMIUM
HOU-NYJ UNDER 42.5
(NFL) Texans (HOU) vs. Jets (NYJ),
Total: 42.50 | -105.00 Under
Result: Win
Total: 42.50 | -105.00 Under
Result: Win
Betting Trends: Primetime unders are 172-123 (58%) with a 12% ROI since 2019. The under is 6-2 in Texans' games this season.
There is clear sharp money on the under, as most of the bets are on the over. I'm siding with the sharps on this TNF total for several reasons, including:
-Texans' offensive line struggled last week, allowing 23 pressures against a mediocre Indy pass rush. Now they face the Jets (6th in pressure rate). LG Kenyon Green in particular has struggled (six pressures allowed) and will likely be lined up against Jets DT Quinnen Williams (15 pressures the last four weeks).
-Texans' offense is limited w/o Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs. HOU averaged a -3% PROE (pass rate over expected) over the last three weeks and is facing a good Jets secondary. I fully anticipate the visitors to lean on Joe Mixon and the ground game tonight, keeping the game clock running. QB CJ Stroud's home/road splits are worth noting, too (11th in EPA per dropback indoors at home and 23rd on the road).
-Jets will face a Houston pass rush ranked top 10 in pressure rate since entering the start of last season. Danielle Hunter currently leads the NFL with a 21% pressure rate. Houston can generate nearly all of its pressure from just four linemen, which helps them hold up in pass coverage — plus DBs Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter are LEGIT.
There is clear sharp money on the under, as most of the bets are on the over. I'm siding with the sharps on this TNF total for several reasons, including:
-Texans' offensive line struggled last week, allowing 23 pressures against a mediocre Indy pass rush. Now they face the Jets (6th in pressure rate). LG Kenyon Green in particular has struggled (six pressures allowed) and will likely be lined up against Jets DT Quinnen Williams (15 pressures the last four weeks).
-Texans' offense is limited w/o Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs. HOU averaged a -3% PROE (pass rate over expected) over the last three weeks and is facing a good Jets secondary. I fully anticipate the visitors to lean on Joe Mixon and the ground game tonight, keeping the game clock running. QB CJ Stroud's home/road splits are worth noting, too (11th in EPA per dropback indoors at home and 23rd on the road).
-Jets will face a Houston pass rush ranked top 10 in pressure rate since entering the start of last season. Danielle Hunter currently leads the NFL with a 21% pressure rate. Houston can generate nearly all of its pressure from just four linemen, which helps them hold up in pass coverage — plus DBs Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter are LEGIT.
