I understand the temptation to bet on Cincinnati to cover, as the Bengals already proved they can hang with the Ravens this season, need this win and are coming into this matchup with momentum. That said, there are several reasons why I won't take their side on Thursday Night Football.

Firstly, Cincinnati is near the bottom of the NFL in most advanced defensive metrics. It doesn't have a consistent pass rush, doesn't force turnovers, doesn't get off the field often enough on third down and struggles to prevent touchdowns in the red zone. On offense, it can be one-dimensional, as the ground game hasn't proven effective against elite run defenses. That will be a cause for concern against Baltimore's stop unit.

Secondly, Baltimore is a behemoth rounding into shape. Its beatdown of Denver was an eye-opener, especially considering that game was close heading into halftime. The 5-4 Broncos haven't played a challenging schedule, but their defense is solid and their offense was competitive in the first half, but the Ravens rose to the occasion when it mattered on both sides of the ball. On the heels of a disappointing loss to Cleveland, Baltimore made a statement with that win, making sure the rest of the league knows it's a legit Super Bowl contender that isn't prone to letdowns.

Lastly, while I give the Bengals credit for getting their act together, their recent winning stretch came against the Giants, Browns, and Raiders. Their lone loss during their 3-1 stretch was a 20-point beatdown to the Eagles, too.  I don't believe they will be ready for the Baltimore buzzkill on Thursday, failing to cover as 6.5-point underdogs.

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