Betting Trend: Steelers HC Mike Tomlin is 59-31 ATS (66%) as a road underdog and is undefeated ATS as a dog this season. Tomlin is also 30-11 (73%) as an underdog ATS against a team with a better record.

The Commanders are good, but are they this good? Washington's offense looks electric, but the caliber of opposing defenses that it played can't be overlooked. It also lacks talent at the skill positions outside of Scary Terry, and with RB Brian Robinson and QB Jayden Daniels banged up, they look vulnerable against this stout Steelers defense (2nd in points allowed and 4th in rushing yards allowed).

Pittsburgh's offense has been functional, too. Washington's defense metrics are bad, ranking 26th in DVOA, as well. The bye week was helpful for their health, along with their transition to Russell Wilson at QB.