Houston will blow out Dallas on Monday night, covering as seven-point spread favorites. Dallas is 1-10 ATS when facing teams with winning percentages between 60% and 75% under Mike McCarthy, while Houston is 3-0 both straight-up and ATS following a home loss under DeMeco Ryans.

The Texans rank in the top 10 in EPA per play allowed (-0.059) and rank eighth in Dropback EPA per play allowed (-0.028). With Cooper Rush taking over for Dak Prescott at QB, the Cowboys are limited offensively, and I don't think their run game is dominant enough to bail them out.

On the other side of the ball, Houston can cover this spread with RB Joe Mixon rounding into form (100-plus rushing yards in four of the last five games). Dallas ranks last in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (0.078), and with WR Nico Collins returning for MNF, the Texans' passing attack will be ready to BALL OUT!

This game should be a layup for Houston, and I'm comfortable wagering on a lopsided Texans victory.