ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Carolina +9 over Green Bay, Saturday at 8:15 PM ET



The Panthers are much better than their 4-9 record. For the season they are just -9 YPG and they actually outgain their opponents on a YPP basis (+0.1). Those are normally the numbers of a .500 type team. They have played a number of close games with 7 of their 9 losses coming by one score (8 points) which would get them a cover here at +8.5 or +9. The Panthers are cashing at a 70% rate as a dog this season (7-3 ATS) and we think they’ll keep this one within a TD. They get top WR Moore back in the line up and we love taking NFL dogs that can score points and Carolina can do that. They are averaging 26 PPG when Bridgewater starts at QB and they should be able to put up points vs this Green Bay defense that is OK, but not great by any means. The Packers have allowed at least 24 points in 3 of their last 4 games and the only offense that didn’t put up points over the last month vs this defense was Philly who has been a wreck on that side of the ball. Green Bay clinched the NFC North last week with a win over Detroit so while they are still fighting for the #1 seed, we wouldn’t be surprised if they weren’t at the top of their game here. Bridgewater is an amazing 18-2 ATS as an underdog in non-division games and we like him to get another cover on Saturday night. Since their road opener @ Tampa, the Panthers have covered 5 straight road games including a 3 point loss @ New Orleans and a 2-point loss @ KC, two of the top teams in the NFL. This one goes to the wire and we’ll take the points.