#102 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota -3 over Pittsburgh, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - Love this situation for the Vikings. They are coming off an embarrassing loss @ Detroit giving the Lions their first win of the season. Detroit scored on the final play of the game for the 29-27 win. The Vikes outgained the Lions 6.0 to 5.2 YPP in that loss. It was the 2nd straight setback for Minnesota after losing @ San Francisco a week earlier putting this team in must win mode at home on Thursday. Let’s not forget the 2 games prior to those losses the Vikings beat the Chargers on the road and the Packers at home. Pittsburgh is coming off a gigantic division 20-19 win beat Baltimore by 1 point when the Ravens decided to go for the win and a 2 point conversion in the final seconds but came up inches short. Now going on the road on a short week after a very physical division battle is not ideal. Prior to squeaking by Baltimore the Steelers tied Detroit at home, lost @ LA Chargers (outgained by 3.1 YPP!), and lost 41-10 @ Cincinnati. The Steelers were +6 in their game @ LA Chargers and +4 @ Cincinnati and now +3 @ Minnesota, a team that ranks ahead of both those teams DVOA? Last week’s loss @ Detroit is giving us nice value here with the Vikings. Despite Minnesota’s 5-7 record (Pitt is 6-5-1), the Vikes rank 11th overall DVOA (12 spots ahead of Pitt), are better defensively (DVOA - 17th to 20th), better offensively (DVOA - 8th to 20th) and they’ve played the tougher schedule to date. Minnesota has a + point differential while Pittsburgh, despite being 1 game above .500, has a point differential of -42. The Minnesota defense was missing their top DB last week with Patrick Peterson out in Covid protocol but he returns this week. The Vikings are receiving tons of criticism in the Minneapolis area after their loss last week and now they are in must win mode on Thursday. We think they come out and play very well and pick up a win & cover over the banged up Steelers.