#655/656 ASA TOP PLAY ON 9* Under 133 Points – Georgia State vs Georgia Southern, Saturday at 3 PM ET - We used this Under on Thursday night and lost. Ga State beat Ga Southern 79-63 yet this total for Saturday came out at the exact same total, not higher as you might expect. That’s because in Thursday’s game there were a few outliers that pushed the game over the total. Georgia State averaged 1.16 PPP in that win which is WAY over their Sun Belt average of 0.97 PPP. Georgia Southern’s defense was poor to say the least as they have allowed just 1.02 PPP in conference play this season. We expect them to put a big emphasis on the defensive end and slow Ga State down on Saturday. Georgia State’s defense has been locked in to say the least. They rank #1 in defensive efficiency in the Sun Belt allowing a paltry 0.92 points per possession. They held the Eagles to right around that number on Thursday (0.93 PPP). The 63 points Ga Southern put up was the most Ga State has allowed since February 3rd. Going back further, the Panthers have allowed only one of their last 9 opponents to reach 70 points. The Georgia Southern offense still ranks dead last in the Sun Belt in offensive efficiency so we don’t expect them to do much here. Our projections have them in the 50’s in this game. The Eagles have gotten to 70 points just ONCE (in regulation) in their 13 conference games. Despite Thursday’s output of 79 points, which was the most Ga State has scored this season in Sun Belt play, the Panthers offense is not good. They 10th in offensive efficiency and 12th (out of 12) in eFG%. These 2 teams are the WORST 3 point shooting teams in the conference ranking 11th & 12th with both hitting barely over 25% of their attempts from deep. Both defenses make their opponents work hard for shots taking lots of time off the clock. We’ll come back with the UNDER on Saturday.