#471 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Dallas Cowboys PK -120 over Minnesota Vikings, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - The oddsmakers and market are telling us something here. Dallas is favored @ Minnesota despite losing @ Green Bay last week, while the Vikings were upsetting Buffalo on the road. The Vikings have just 1 loss on the season and are undefeated at home yet Dallas is favored and the line has moved very little. We like the Cowboys to win this one. They will be motivated after losing in OT last week and this is a huge game for them as they sit in 3rd place in the NFC East behind Philly and NY Giants. Meanwhile Minnesota has a huge lead in the NFC North with Green Bay and their 7 losses sitting in 2nd place. The Vikings simply aren’t as good as their record might indicate. They’ve been fortunate going 7-0 SU in one score games and they are #2 in the NFL in turnover margin. In they key YPP margin metric they rank 23rd and Minny is getting outgained both on a YPP and YPG basis despite their 8-1 record. They are undefeated at home but those wins have come vs Arizona, Chicago, Green Bay, and Detroit who have a combined 14-26 record. Dallas should be fresh as they had a bye leading into their GB game and despite their loss last Sunday, they’ve covered 13 of the last 18 times they’ve been tabbed a favorite. The Boys have a big edge defensively (allowing 0.8 YPP less than Minnesota) and should be edgy on that side of the ball after a poor performance last weekend. We like Dallas to get the win and cover on Sunday.