#475 ASA PLAY ON 8* San Francisco 49ers -8 over Arizona Cardinals, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - This game is being played on a neutral site in Mexico City. YPP differential is a big determiner of how good a team actually is. Then comparing it to their record is a team undervalued or overvalued? This SF team has a 5-4 SU record yet their YPP differential is the 2nd best, behind only the Bills, in the NFL at +1.2 so this team is much better than their record. Arizona, on the other hand, has a 4-6 record, but they are fortunate to have that mark as their YPP differential ranks 31st in the NFL ahead of only Pittsburgh. On top the YPP differential, San Fran ranks 26th in turnover margin (lots of luck involved) at -3 and they still have a winning record. Arizona, on the other hand, ranks 5th in TO margin at +5 yet they have a losing record. Those 2 stats are very telling and we feel SF is the MUCH better team in this game. The Cards 4 wins have all come against teams that currently have losing records and none of those teams has more than 3 wins. When they step up in competition and play teams currently above .500, Arizona has a record of 0-5 and their average point margin in those games is -10 per game. The Niner offense has had some time to incorporate new RB weapon McCaffrey into their scheme and they are facing a Cardinal defense that has given up at least 30 points in 3 of their last 4 games. They only team in the last month that did not hit 30 vs Arizona was the LA Rams who rank dead last in the NFL in total offense. Arizona’s injury report is as long as any in the NFL right now with QB Murray questionable along with top WR Hopkins, 2 starting offensive linemen, and a number of others. They are playing their 11th straight week while SF had bye 2 weeks ago so they should be the much fresher team. We’ll lay it with the 49ers.