#471 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati Bengals +2 over LA Chargers, Sunday at 8:15 PM ET - Cincinnati is in must win mode here. With their 4-6 record, the Bengals currently sit in the 9th spot in the AFC playoff race (top 7 teams make it) but a loss here and they only have a 14% chance of making the post-season. A win gives them a 40% chance so this is basically a win at all costs game. They have extra time to get ready after losing @ Baltimore 35-34 last Thursday. The Bengals are 3-2 on the road and their 2 losses away from home came by a single point vs Baltimore & KC, arguably the 2 best or 2 of the 3 best teams in the NFL. Cincy led both of those games in the 4th quarter and had their chances to win in both. They’ve been competitive in every loss with the exception of Philadelphia with 5 of their 6 losses coming by a combined 16 points. A few breaks here and there and this team could have a much better record. The Chargers are sitting with a 6-3 record but they’ve played one of the easiest schedules in the NFL to date (30th ranked SOS so far). Their wins have come vs Carolina, Las Vegas, Tennessee, Cleveland, New Orleans and Denver, not a single team in that group currently above .500. All of those teams have offenses that rank in the bottom half of the NFL and 5 of those 6 rank 22nd or lower in scoring. Now they face a Cincinnati team that can put points on the board (6th in scoring) and is rolling on offense scoring 75 points the last 2 weeks. Despite playing the tougher schedule and having the worse record, the Bengals have a better YPP differential. Joe Burrow is 15-6 ATS in his career as an underdog and he has been fantastic this season leading NFL in passing yards to go along with 24 TD’s (1st in the league) and just 4 picks. He has torched zone defenses in his career and the Chargers play a top 5 rate of zone defense. He also gets WR Higgins back this week so this offense should be full strength. LA doesn’t have much of a home field advantage and we like the Bengals to win this game outright.