#372 ASA PLAY ON James Madison -3.5 over Marshall, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Marshall is on a 5 game winning streak but digging into the stats they have been very fortunate to say the least. The Herd have actually been outgained in 3 of those 5 wins and were dead even yardage wise in another. They’ve benefitted from opponent’s mistakes as they are +7 turnovers in those 5 games. On top of that, not one of their opponents during this 5 game run currently has a winning record. Now they run into a James Madison team that is 8-3 this season and they are a perfect 5-0 at home and they’ve win 15 of their last 17 home games. Marshall is playing their 2nd straight road game and they are 2-3 on the road this year and just 3-8 away from home since the start of last season. They will be facing a motivated JMU team who is coming off a loss @ App State as a 7 point favorite. The Dukes also have a chance to knock Marshall out of the Sun Belt Championship game as a win here puts the Herd in that game next week (extra pressure on the road team to win this one). Last week Marshall played @ ODU (who is now 4-7 on the season) and the line in that game was the Monarchs favored by 3. They were outgained in that game 513 to 469, ODU has 2 turnovers (0 for Marshall) and the Herd scored a late TD to win by 7. Now we’re getting nearly the same number @ JMU (currently -3.5) and the Dukes are a much better team than ODU (JMU was favored @ ODU just a few weeks ago). JMU is the better team across the board with better YPP, YPG, and YPC margins and playing in their home finale. Marshall is vastly overvalued right now with a 9-1 ATS record which is why we are getting this great value with JMU at home. Lay the small number with James Madison on Saturday night.