#138 ASA PLAY ON LA Rams +3.5 over Buffalo Bills, Sunday at 4 PM ET - Bills are overdue for a letdown type game and this match up screams that scenario. Bills are off home wins over Chiefs & 49ers and they have Detroit on deck. They already clinched their division and a playoff spot 10-2 record (Miami sitting is 2nd place at 5-7). We think Buffalo is at the top of the market right now and overvalued after winning 7 straight games while covering 6 of those. This is a huge home game for the Rams who are 6-6 (10th spot in the NFC Playoff race) and one game behind Seattle for the NFC West lead. A win here and a win by Arizona over Seattle and all 3 teams will be tied for 1st place. Since getting back to full strength, the Rams have been playing very well winning 5 of their last 7. Their losses during that stretch came vs Miami (LAR outgained the Fins by almost 100 yards) and vs Philadelphia who just might be the best team in the NFL right now. Since getting WR’s Kupp and Nakua back in the line up, the Rams have outgained 5 of their last 7 opponents (YPP) and they’ve gained 10 yards or more and almost 23% of their offensive snaps (5th in the NFL during that span). Buffalo is on an impressive run with a great record but their metrics aren’t that of a 10-2 team. They are outgaining their opponents by only +26 YPG and their YPP margin is +0.4 which is 9th in the NFL. In their most recent road game the Bills were -4 to -4.5 @ Indy and won by 10 with the help of a pick 6 otherwise they don’t cover that game (YPP were dead even). Letdown spot traveling west and we’ll call this one to the wire. Take the points.