Akron and Bowling Green were the two worst teams in the Mid-American Conference this season. Ohio blew both of them out during its last two games. 
If you discount those two games, though, the Bobcats went 2-8 ATS, including an 0-6 ATS mark when favored. They also failed to cover in the four games they played against other bowl teams. 
Nevada is undervalued here, too, because while Ohio was blowing out bad opponents the Wolf Pack fell to UNLV as a 6.5-point home favorite in their final regular season game. Nevada is better as a 'dog than favorite. The Wolf Pack defeated Purdue, San Diego State and Fresno State straight-up all as a double-digit 'dog. 
The Wolf Pack also knows this venue in Idaho and its higher elevation and unique blue field because they play Boise State being in the Mountain West Conference.