Johnny Cueto is past his prime. I get that even with Cueto coming off a brilliant performance. But I'm still not buying Cueto and the Giants opening as a home 'dog to the Reds and bottom-of-the-rotation type Tyler Mahle. 

I'm also not buying the Reds as the best offense team in baseball leading the majors in runs and homers. Regression is coming and it could start right here against what should be a highly-motivated Cueto, who pitched 7 1/2 seasons for the Reds before being traded to the Royals in 2015. 

It has been four years since Cueto last faced the Reds. The 35-year-old is off a dominant 3-1 home win against Colorado this past Friday when he pitched 8 2/3 innings giving up four hits with a 7-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. 

Perhaps I'm underrating Mahle. At best, though, he's a middle-of-the-rotation type. Mahle has a 7.45 career ERA against the Giants in two starts. Mahle doesn't go deep into games either. 

The Giants are 4-1 at home this season.