The Bucks have been a dominant team for the last several years. But they've always had problems with Miami. The Bucks were fortunate to win Game 1 at home this past Saturday, nipping the Heat, 109-107, on a basket by Khris Middleton with a second left in overtime. 

The Heat came that close despite Jimmy Butler enduring the worst shooting performance of his career. Bam Adebayo, the Heat's second-best player next to Butler, also had a bad shooting game. Combined they were 8-of-37 from the floor for 22 percent. 

The Bucks dominated the Heat inside the paint outscoring Miami, 56-24. 

I highly doubt Butler and Abebayo shoot that bad again and the Heat should be better in the paint, too. The Heat led the NBA in paint defense giving up 41.3 points per game. 

Expect the Heat to play much better in this Game 2. The Heat will need to hit their 3-pointers like they did in Game 1, but those looks are there for them. The Bucks had the worst 3-point shooting defense in the Eastern Conference. 

The Bucks have failed to cover seven of the past eight times they've been favored.