This series is three games old and all three games have gone Over. Now we have our first daytime start. That's a plus for the Under because of the unfamiliarity.  

But the main reason why I'm going Under is pace. The tempo hasn't been fast. The shooting has been outstanding, though. 

It looked for sure that Game 3 was going Under. But there were more than 50 points scored during the last six minutes of the Nuggets' 120-115 victory Thursday, including 29 during the final 2:29. The Nuggets shot a blazing 20-of-38 from 3-point range for 53 percent. Journeyman Austin Rivers was on fire.

I understand these teams have superstars. But only seven teams surrendered fewer points per game than the Nuggets, who also were No. 1 in defensive rebounding. The Trail Blazers aren't a good defensive team, but their intensity should be sky high after falling behind 2-1 in the series with Thursday's home loss. Portland also doesn't have to contend with Nuggets star Jamal Murray.

I just don't see a hot-shooting game again here and that's what is needed to make this one go Over.